Predictions 2012: Deals, Squeals, & Reels

Here’s my list of prediction for the months ahead.

1. There will be a proxy fight or some other credible challenge to Steve Ballmer’s leadership of Microsoft.  The rumors that Gates will return will surface every few weeks despite his denials.The pain has gone on for too long for shareholders. Plucky pundits (Henry Blodgett’s Business Insider, maybe?) will suggest that the company finish the job that the DOJ once started: split he company into three parts: legacy (Windows/Office, related tools and other apps), Xbox, and online (Bing, MSN, and cloud apps).
2. Microsoft will buy Nokia. T-Mobile, or both. It’s kinda now or nevah for Windows Phone. More influence over Nokia would certainly help, and acquiring T-Mobile would give them both a captive carrier and a distribution network for Windows products. Time to put that cash to work.
3. Yahoo in 2012 will be the Netscape of 2003, sold to its Asian partners or maybe even AOL. There will be a lot of eye-dabbing and hankie-wringing about the decline of the last of the original search companies.
4. SAP and Oracle will continue to buy their way into the cloud, picking up a few of the stronger apps like Concur.  Customers will scratch their heads when their Oracle reps say,  “Clouds are great, but I can interest you one of our deeply-discounted quarterly specials on this software.”
5. Downloads of the Facebook S-1, which will appear in March, will temporarily crash the SEC’s servers. Even though the broader market will suck, the IPO will be well received and will inspire less solid companies to go public as well. The “Social Bubble” of 2012 will be short-lived, but much discussed in Silicon Valley.
6. There will be a hostile offer for Research in Motion. Co-founders Jim Balsille and Mike Lazaridis will explore a management buyout in response.  I think RIM would be a good fit for Dell or HP, but I don’t think either one would do it.
7. Meg Whitman will get poor marks on her first year report card at Hewlett Packard.  She is an enormously talented executive, but HP’s problems will take a long time to solve.
8. The Kindle Fire will temporarily outsell the iPad.  Apple will rush the iPad mini into production.
9. Apple will discontinue the MacPro desktop.
10. George Clooney will play Steve Jobs in a move based on the Issacson book, even though everybody thinks it really should be Noah Wiley. Clooney will look a bit too orange on the red carpet one night.  Two weeks later he will be hospitalized briefly for malnutrition and his publicist will issue a release saying that he has eaten nothing but carrots for eight weeks. Aaron Sorkin will want to write the script, but Laurene Powell Jobs will (Laura Linney) will quietly veto the idea, reminding the studio that Sorkin snubbed Steve’s plea to write the legenday Stanford speech. Paul Giammati will be the emotional core as John Lasseter; Christian Bale will nail it as Jony Iveb.  James Gandolfini will surprise everyone as a lovable Woz. William Hurt will play John Sculley. Meryl Streep will receive a Best Supporting Actress nomination as Mona Simpson.